Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world econony. UK trade to the Middle East has shrunk since the Iran war began eight weeks ago, new data shows. “Our documentation data shows a clear and immediate shock to UK trade flows linked directly to disruption across the Middle East. The fact that exports tied to Arab markets are falling far faster than elsewhere tells us this is a targeted, region‑specific impact, not a broad‑based downturn. “Firms are reporting increased delays, rerouting via longer and more expensive pathways, enduring rising insurance premiums and facing stretched lead times. For SMEs in particular, this squeezes cashflow and confidence at a time when exporting is already challenging. “Business’ expectations for activity have weakened further, as companies continue to grapple with uneven trading conditions, strong cost pressures and renewed uncertainty. “These challenges have been exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East, which is increasingly hitting a broad swathe of UK businesses. Our surveys suggest that the additional pressure on costs and supply chains is feeding through to pricing intentions – but not nearly enough to offset the burden facing firms. 10am BST: Eurozone economic sentiment data 2.45pm BST: Bank of Canada interest rate decision 7pm BST: US Federal Reserve intereat rate decisoin 7.30pm BST: Federal Reserve press conference Continue reading...

The bizarre vertical flight pattern has long puzzled experts but new research reveals why it may play a crucial role in the insect’s survival On a spring evening along the banks of the River Thames, thousands of mayflies can be seen engaging in what may be one of the world’s oldest dances. In the fading light, the males make a steep vertical climb, flip over and float back to Earth – wings and tail outstretched in a skydiving posture so as to drop slowly through the sky. Mayflies are among the world’s oldest winged insects, emerging roughly 300m years ago – long before dinosaurs walked the Earth. Even the Mesopotamian poem the Epic of Gilgamesh, one of the oldest pieces of literature, makes reference to the short-lived mayfly. Over the epochs, the insect’s basic design has changed very little compared with the fossils of their ancestors. Continue reading...

The Northern Irish writer explores music and family, memory and duty in this stunning collection of sharply observed tales The stories in Northern Irish writer Lucy Caldwell’s fourth collection are often devoted to family life, or a professional life in the arts: or both. They’re almost always about memory and how to manage it. They offer a certain continuity with her earlier collections, Multitudes, Intimacies and Openings, though it’s subtle and organic rather than directly narrative. In All Grown Up, Luke returns to his childhood home, only to be steadily reabsorbed by it. He applies himself to clearing the house, putting it on the market; he thinks about all the possibilities he’ll have once he’s sold up. But the longer he stays the less impulse there is to leave, and the more he remembers, not just about his life here, but his life generally. Meanwhile he’s a 40-year-old divorcee with a bad back, incipient alcoholism and a child at boarding school, attempting to come to terms with divorce, the death of his mother and his sense of entrapment. A one-night stand with his ex-wife’s sister doesn’t help. As you read, that title cycles between bleak irony and an equally bleak optimism. Continue reading...

Aria Shahrokhshahi went to teenage discos and hospital wards rattled by rockets in order to capture how it feels when your country is dragged into a war Continue reading...

There is less daffy humour in this sequel than in the 2023 original, but some sublime animation By the demented standards of fantasy anime, this is fairly straight; the weirdest thing on show here is probably a unicorn-wolf who scoffs pink frosted doughnuts. And in case you’re having trouble distinguishing the interchangeable faerie folk who populate the cast, this second theatrical outing for the series has (unusually for feature-length anime) a handy explainer at the start: namely that the protagonist is a murdered salaryman reborn as Rimuru (voiced by Miho Okasaki), an amoeba-like blob who rises to become demon lord of the realm of Tempest. In fact, Rimuru features minimally in this sequel. He and his retinue are invited by the Celestial Emperor to holiday at a luxury island resort; the only thing spoiling their sightseeing, fishing and carousing are the laser-like bursts of “nuclear magic” periodically blasting over their heads. But they are told they are in no danger: the target is the nearby undersea kingdom of Kaien. Rimuru and co resume their vacay – but bodyguard Gobta (Asuna Tomari) realises the group are being trailed by Yura (Saori Onishi), a Kaien priestess who has absconded with an ancestral flute at the centre of a power struggle. Continue reading...

Gentle cycling is the perfect pace to enjoy the region’s sunflower fields and medieval towns – with gourmet food and fine wine along the way As I cycle in golden light through the Loire’s vineyards, I have the sudden wish to wear a flowing floral dress, tuck a sunflower behind my ear and answer only to the name Delphine. Opulent chateaux, honeyed stone villages, blazing fields of sunflowers … the Loire is so ridiculously and relentlessly beautiful it’s no wonder artists such as Leonardo da Vinci and Émile Vernon made it their home. A short zip across to Paris on the Eurostar and then an hour south on the TGV to Saint-Pierre-des-Corps and it feels as if we’ve stepped into a live JMW Turner landscape (he toured the region in 1826). Continue reading...

In some ways, this expansive Spanish language series improves on the Chilean family saga about a psychic girl and a military coup. But it mainly just feels old-fashioned and naive Clara del Valle is a delightful little girl, all smiles and plaits and cheeky interruptions during boring sermons at Mass. Her large family, enjoying life in their sprawling house in 1920s Chile, dote on her. But her psychic powers can be a buzzkill: when she gets a premonition that death is coming, come it will. Half a century later, her granddaughter Alba discovers Clara’s diaries, and realises that the horrors she’s seen were always going to happen. Along with Alba’s mother Blanca, these women are the three generations at the heart of Chilean novelist Isabel Allende’s 1982 debut The House of the Spirits, previously the basis of a weirdly whitened movie starring Meryl Streep. Amazon’s expansive eight-parter, filmed in Spanish and indeed in Chile and executive produced by Eva Longoria, is a more faithful version of a book that begins as a sprawling family saga before pitching the reader into a stream of violence that concludes with a fictionalised account of the coup that removed the socialist Chilean leader Salvador Allende – a cousin of the author – and replaced him with one of the 20th century’s most vicious dictatorships. The House of the Spirits is on Prime Video. Continue reading...

The chancellor’s changes will come into force in April 2027, affecting everyone from savers to landlords and sole traders. Experts say to act now Millions of people will be affected by a range of savings, investment and tax changes that take effect in just under a year’s time. “April 2027 may feel some way off, but when it comes to financial planning, a year is not a long time,” says Jason Hollands at the wealth management firm Evelyn Partners. Continue reading...

Exclusive: Cambridge research finds socioenvironmental stressors may influence body’s ability to function healthily in pregnancy Stress from racism and deprivation could explain why black women are more likely to die during childbirth, a study has found. Researchers reviewed 44 existing studies that examined three physiological pathways associated with worse pregnancy outcomes: oxidative stress, inflammation, and uteroplacental vascular resistance, and found black women had higher levels of the three metrics. Continue reading...

When I saw a woman with a facial difference like mine at a party, I crossed the room to speak to her. It led to one of the most joyous, exciting and transformative discussions, in which I connected with feelings I’d always ignored At a fundraising event, I looked across the crowded room and saw a woman with a cleft – a gap in the lip (and sometimes the palate) where a baby’s face doesn’t fuse properly during pregnancy. She was standing on her own, and I beckoned her over to join the small group I was with. She politely declined and before I quite realised what I was doing, I was crossing the room to speak to her. I too had been born with a cleft. I’d talked to doctors, my parents, my wife and other friends about it to varying degrees over the years, but as I walked towards her, I knew this was going to be the first time – in more than 60 years – that I was going to have a conversation about living with a cleft with someone who also has one. I was terrified I might offend her, but I said something like: “Isn’t it scary walking into a crowded room? Because it feels as if everyone is looking at us.” Continue reading...

Classic Football Shirts have been in business for 20 years, selling over one million shirts (so far) and keeping the most iconic match-worn pieces in their temperature-controlled vault. Michael Butler travelled to Manchester to meet the CFS founders Continue reading...

Dalì is among the artist suspects in This Is Not a Murder Mystery. Plus: the story behind the 2018 Salisbury poisonings. Here’s what to watch this evening 8pm, U&Drama A period crime drama set in West Sussex, 1936: a stately home is playing host to the hottest artists of the day, including Salvador Dalí, Man Ray and René Magritte. After a party fuelled by cocaine, opium and professional jealousy, a body is found, staged like Magritte’s The Lovers – prompting the arrival of Stephen Tompkinson as acerbic DCI John Thistlethwaite. The clever visual references and arch dialogue make it hard not to love. Jack Seale Continue reading...

Trump is volatile, capricious and unreasonable – but he belongs to the old world of analogue power. What comes next will be harder to manage Donald Trump is not impressed by soft power. He respects hard men with military muscle. But he can be moved by pageantry, which is the purpose of King Charles’s visit to Washington this week. Trump is flattered to rub shoulders with majesty. The good vibes are then supposed to radiate warmth through a political relationship that has been chilled by the war in Iran. It might work, but not for long. Trump’s irritation with Keir Starmer and other European leaders for what he calls cowardice in the Middle East is aggravated daily by evidence that the war is a strategic calamity. Rafael Behr is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...

A KCL study has found that exposure during the first trimester of pregnancy delayed speech development Babies exposed to higher levels of air pollution in the early stages of pregnancy take longer to learn to speak than those exposed to lower levels in the womb, new research suggests. A study by researchers from King’s College London found exposure to nitrogen dioxide and fine and ultra-fine particulate matter during the first trimester of pregnancy delayed speech development at 18 months. Continue reading...

Badge holders and carers report being harassed, filmed and threatened by strangers who think they are faking disability Disabled people who use blue badges to go about their daily lives have said they are being harassed, questioned and even assaulted, as anti-benefits rhetoric becomes more mainstream in the UK. About 3 million people in the UK now have a blue badge, including 1 in 15 adults in England. The number of people who qualify for the scheme – which allows drivers to park in more accessible spaces – has caused some to warn of misuse and fraud. Continue reading...

Exclusive: 839,000 homes in urban areas face threat of surface-water flooding, with social housing tenants most vulnerable to costs Eight in 10 of the homes that are at high risk of flooding in England are now in towns and cities, according to analysis by the National Housing Federation (NHF), which said social housing tenants are disproportionately vulnerable to the financial cost. Research found that 839,000 homes in urban areas are now classed as being at high risk of surface water flooding, a threefold increase since 2018. Continue reading...

Artichokes and peas seasoned with garlic, ground ginger and turmeric make a sensational and surprising sauce for pasta, and a showstopping Moroccan-spiced lamb shoulder with a fruity salsa I was lucky enough to grow up in a home where we had lots of family and friends around, which meant lots of people to feed. On those occasions, if my mum wanted to make something special that required minimal effort, she served a roast lamb shoulder. After all, roasts actually follow a concept similar to traybakes: the main ingredients are combined in a roasting tin and the oven does most of the work. In Morocco, méchoui can refer to either grilled or roast dishes, but for a lamb shoulder it typically means that it’s roasted. But, first, my take on a traditional artichoke and pea tagine, a popular dish typically enjoyed in spring. In Moroccan homes, tagines are served simply with bread, without sides, but I have found that some make excellent sauces for pasta. Continue reading...

Statue recognising Japan’s sexual slavery of up to 200,000 women in second world war will no longer be erected in Auckland New Zealand officials rejected on Wednesday an application to install a statue commemorating so-called “comfort women” enslaved by Japan before and during the second world war after Tokyo suggested it could harm diplomatic relations. Japan forced up to 200,000 women from Korea, China and south-east Asia into sexual slavery from 1932 until 1945 and the issue remains a sore point in Tokyo’s relations with its neighbours. Continue reading...

Charity says starting specialised care after first miscarriage instead of third reduces risk of future losses Giving women access to specialised care after their first miscarriage could prevent about 10,000 pregnancy losses a year across the UK, according to a study. Currently, women in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are eligible for specialist care on the NHS for early baby losses after they have had a minimum of three miscarriages. Continue reading...

He was the burned-out bigwig who moved to a very big house. Now back with his first music for decades, he talks about signing the Proclaimers, being punched by Julian Cope – and his Scott Walker-inspired trio David Balfe has had quite a life. In the Teardrop Explodes, he took amyl nitrate on The Old Grey Whistle Test and acid on Top of the Pops. As a music publisher he’s been involved with a multitude of bands from the KLF to the Proclaimers, and his record label signed Blur when they were called Seymour. However, he’ll probably be most remembered as the man immortalised in their 1995 smash Country House. “Balfey” actually lived “in a house, a very big house in the country.” “That’s going to be the first thing mentioned in my Guardian obituary,” he chuckles. “I’m aware that the song isn’t exactly a paean to my greatness, but I’m genuinely proud about it. It’s the one thing you can casually drop into a dinner party and everybody goes, ‘What the fuck?!’” Continue reading...

Delegates at event in Cape Verde highlight opportunities from tech while stressing AI is no replacement for talent Last July, the Nigerian singer-songwriter Fave found herself caught up in a viral moment: an unauthorised version of a track featuring an AI choir had been released, quickly becoming an internet sensation. To get ahead of the situation, she recorded her own remix that integrated the AI-assisted song and added it to her discography. “In my view, [that] was smart and very business aware,” Oyinkansola Fawehinmi, a Lagos-based entertainment lawyer, observed a few months later. “She essentially reclaimed the ‘AI version’ and released it as her own official expression.” Continue reading...

Mare of Easttown meets Schitt’s Creek in this rich, wonderful and laugh-out-loud series, in which a put-upon mayor tries to turn a cursed New England island into a tourist hotspot What do you do if you want your charming little island off the coast of New England to become the next Martha’s Vineyard, but it’s full of legends about local cannibalism, sea hags, clown killers, poison fog and boogeymen who slaughter teenage girls in their beds? And what if it is full of sea hags, poisoned fog and clown killers, which doesn’t bode well for the mythical status of the cannibalism and boogeyman tales? Such is the dilemma posed by Widow’s Bay for its mayor, Tom Loftis (Matthew Rhys), in a 10-part series that in the very best way defies categorisation. Horror may be its most obvious element, but it is so much more than that. Still, for fans of that genre, the writer-creator Katie Dippold and Hiro Murai, the director of the first five episodes, which set the tone, deliver the goods, lovingly covering most of the tropes. Continue reading...

Whether you are starting from scratch, or have a well-honed routine, moving can help us feel happier and healthier. Experts share their one essential exercise and how to get the most out of it Many of us, regardless of our age or fitness levels, know that we should be doing more exercise but are unsure where to start. So what is the ultimate exercise for improving health, longevity and general wellbeing? Here, personal trainers share the best moves, whatever your individual needs or abilities. Continue reading...

As an ex-pro snowboarder, I know the temptations of fresh snowfall. And as an avalanche researcher, I know how easily people can get into trouble Many avalanche accidents occur just after a storm, when blue-sky conditions return and people head to the backcountry to enjoy fresh powder. These kinds of accidents happen every year, despite warnings to those heading out into the snow. It is easy to dismiss some behaviour as reckless, and sometimes it is – but it is also human behaviour, and it is nothing new. I have been there too; I have made mistakes and got lucky. When I was about 18, while freeriding with my brother, we suddenly changed direction towards a beautiful and untracked powder field. It felt magical, until we realised we were heading straight for a 100-metre cliff. We turned back just in time, and moments later, a huge avalanche released exactly where we had been, and went over the edge. Johan Gaume is an ex-pro snowboarder and a professor of alpine mass movements at ETH Zürich and SLF Davos Continue reading...

Dublin scholars find 1,200-year-old manuscript of Caedmon’s Hymn composed by Northumbrian cattle herder A lost copy of a poem composed in the seventh century by a Northumbrian cattle herder – the earliest surviving poem in the English language – has been discovered in Rome. Scholars from Trinity College Dublin (TCD) uncovered the manuscript that contains Caedmon’s Hymn at the National Central Library of Rome. Continue reading...